Feature Combination Analysis
All 2,047 subsets of 11 variables — walk-forward logistic regression on 61 played 2026 matches (same training setup as the full model)
Full Model (11 vars)
62.1%
Best Combo
72.4%
+10.3pp vs full model
Best Combo Size
6 features
Combos Beating Full Model
628
Best Combo
Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco
Must include
Top 50 combinations (LR walk-forward)
| # | Combination | # Vars | LR Acc | Vote Acc | Correct | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 42 | 58 |
| 2 | Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 72.4% | 62.0% | 42 | 58 |
| 3 | Bat First + Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 69.0% | 61.4% | 40 | 58 |
| 4 | Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 69.0% | 54.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 5 | Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 4 | 69.0% | 54.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 6 | Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 4 | 69.0% | 51.1% | 40 | 58 |
| 7 | H2H + Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 7 | 69.0% | 52.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 8 | H2H + Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 69.0% | 50.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 9 | ELO + Venue WP + MU-SR + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 69.0% | 50.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 10 | H2H + Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 69.0% | 46.8% | 40 | 58 |
| 11 | H2H + Bat First + Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 69.0% | 55.8% | 40 | 58 |
| 12 | H2H + Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 4 | 69.0% | 44.4% | 40 | 58 |
| 13 | Bat First + Ssn Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 4 | 69.0% | 61.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 14 | Bat First + Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 4 | 69.0% | 57.8% | 40 | 58 |
| 15 | Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 3 | 69.0% | 47.8% | 40 | 58 |
| 16 | Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 69.0% | 62.0% | 40 | 58 |
| 17 | Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 69.0% | 51.9% | 40 | 58 |
| 18 | ELO + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 7 | 69.0% | 54.5% | 40 | 58 |
| 19 | H2H + Venue WP + Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 46.2% | 39 | 58 |
| 20 | ELO + H2H + Venue WP + Bat First + MU-DR | 5 | 67.2% | 57.7% | 39 | 58 |
| 21 | ELO + Venue WP + MU-SR + Toss + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 43.5% | 39 | 58 |
| 22 | ELO + Venue WP + MU-SR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 43.8% | 39 | 58 |
| 23 | ELO + H2H + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR | 6 | 67.2% | 55.6% | 39 | 58 |
| 24 | ELO + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Toss + Bowl Eco | 7 | 67.2% | 52.2% | 39 | 58 |
| 25 | H2H + Venue WP + Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 7 | 67.2% | 59.6% | 39 | 58 |
| 26 | ELO + H2H + Venue WP + Bat First + MU-DR + Bat SR | 6 | 67.2% | 56.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 27 | Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 4 | 67.2% | 57.8% | 39 | 58 |
| 28 | Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 56.6% | 39 | 58 |
| 29 | Ssn Form + MU-DR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 55.3% | 39 | 58 |
| 30 | H2H + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 52.2% | 39 | 58 |
| 31 | Form + Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 50.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 32 | ELO + Venue WP + MU-SR + MU-DR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 7 | 67.2% | 46.8% | 39 | 58 |
| 33 | H2H + Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 51.9% | 39 | 58 |
| 34 | ELO + Venue WP + Bat First + MU-SR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 55.8% | 39 | 58 |
| 35 | ELO + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-SR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 7 | 67.2% | 48.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 36 | H2H + Bat First + Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 56.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 37 | Venue WP + Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 8 | 67.2% | 58.3% | 39 | 58 |
| 38 | ELO + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 8 | 67.2% | 52.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 39 | H2H + Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 60.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 40 | H2H + Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 8 | 67.2% | 51.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 41 | Bat First + Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 58.3% | 39 | 58 |
| 42 | ELO + Bat First + MU-SR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 5 | 67.2% | 56.9% | 39 | 58 |
| 43 | ELO + Venue WP + Bat First + MU-DR | 4 | 67.2% | 69.2% | 39 | 58 |
| 44 | ELO + Venue WP + Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Toss + Bowl Eco | 8 | 67.2% | 59.6% | 39 | 58 |
| 45 | ELO + H2H + Venue WP + Bat First + Bat SR | 5 | 67.2% | 55.8% | 39 | 58 |
| 46 | ELO + Venue WP + MU-SR + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 46.0% | 39 | 58 |
| 47 | ELO + H2H + Venue WP + Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Bowl Eco | 8 | 67.2% | 55.8% | 39 | 58 |
| 48 | ELO + Venue WP + Bat First + MU-SR + Toss + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 53.3% | 39 | 58 |
| 49 | ELO + Venue WP + Ssn Form + MU-SR + MU-DR + Bowl Eco | 6 | 67.2% | 51.1% | 39 | 58 |
| 50 | ELO + H2H + Venue WP + Bat First + MU-SR + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco | 8 | 67.2% | 55.3% | 39 | 58 |
🟢 Green = beats full model
Accuracy distribution by # of features
Feature presence in top 50 combos
Voting accuracy vs LR accuracy
Orange lines = full model accuracy. Top-right quadrant: beats model on both metrics.
Best accuracy per feature pair (LR)
| Bat First | Bat SR | Bowl Eco | ELO | Form | H2H | MU-DR | MU-SR | Ssn Form | Toss | Venue WP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bat First | 63.8 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | |
| Bat SR | 63.8 | 67.2 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | |
| Bowl Eco | 60.3 | 67.2 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 60.3 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 63.8 | |
| ELO | 62.1 | 62.1 | 60.3 | 58.6 | 58.6 | 62.1 | 60.3 | 63.8 | 55.2 | 67.2 | |
| Form | 63.8 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 58.6 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | |
| H2H | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 58.6 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | |
| MU-DR | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | |
| MU-SR | 60.3 | 62.1 | 60.3 | 60.3 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 60.3 | 60.3 | 58.6 | 63.8 | |
| Ssn Form | 62.1 | 62.1 | 60.3 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 62.1 | 60.3 | 62.1 | 62.1 | |
| Toss | 63.8 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 55.2 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 58.6 | 62.1 | 62.1 | |
| Venue WP | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 67.2 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 62.1 | 62.1 |
Key findings
Top 5 combinations (LR walk-forward)
Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco
72.4% (+10.3pp, 42/58 matches)Bat First + Ssn Form + MU-DR + Bat SR + Bowl Eco
72.4% (+10.3pp, 42/58 matches)Bat First + Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco
69.0% (+6.9pp, 40/58 matches)Bat First + Form + Ssn Form + Bat SR + Bowl Eco
69.0% (+6.9pp, 40/58 matches)Ssn Form + Toss + Bat SR + Bowl Eco
69.0% (+6.9pp, 40/58 matches)
Feature sweet spot
| Features | Best Accuracy |
|---|---|
| 1 | 63.8% |
| 2 | 67.2% |
| 3 | 69.0% |
| 4 | 69.0% |
| 5 | 72.4% |
| 6 | 72.4% |
| 7 | 69.0% |
| 8 | 67.2% |
| 9 | 67.2% |
| 10 | 67.2% |
| 11 | 62.1% |